Tuesday’s election can easily be called a Republican tsunami.  Republicans won big across the country and across the state of  Michigan. In fact, all three major state offices are now held by Republicans, who also control the State House and Senate. So why did Republican Suzanne Sareini lose her bid to become a State Representative in Dearborn? Why did Democrats Jocelyn Benson and  David Leyton win in Dearborn when they lost state wide? And what about the Dearborn School Board race in which incumbent attorney Jim Schoolmaster hung on to his seat by a mere 21 votes?

A close look at Dearborn’s returns shows an overall low turnout of  Arab Americans. While the city’s total turnout was over 43%, turnout in east end precincts varied from low to mid-twenties percent, almost half the city’s total turnout. Of course, the east end doesn’t include Arab voters only but given the high number of registered Arab  American voters in the east (including south), it is safe to read  east end results as indicative of Arab American results. It is also important to note that many Arab Americans now live and vote in West  Dearborn. In the following analysis, we will use the term Arab precincts to designate precincts 1 to 21 minus precinct 13 which is  Henry Ford Village.

First, in the 15th district Michigan House race, Republican Suzanne  Sareini (10,220 votes) lost to Democrat George Darany (12,408 votes).  This district includes all of Dearborn except precincts 1 to 3 (in  the northeast part of the city). Sareini is a popular city councilwoman who received more votes than Darany in the last Council  election (2009) and who was backed by the Arab American Political Action Committee (AAPAC), which had poll workers passing out its slates at the east and south end precincts. Further, Sareini was running in a the Republican tsunami, so why did she lose? There are many possible reasons, most important of which is the negative campaigning by the Democrats which seems to have worked on many voters. For example, in the absentees, Sareini received 2,308 votes compared to Darany’s 2,524 votes. 

The other important reason is the straight party Democratic vote in the Arab precincts. In fact,  despite AAPAC’s repeated calls for no straight party voting, and  despite the fact that AAPAC printed a detailed slate with every endorsed name listed regardless of party affiliation, the returns show a very high number of Democratic votes in Arab precincts, which  also explains the performance of Benson and Leyton. There were 2,865  straight Democratic Party votes in the Arab precincts compared with a  mere 581 straight Republican Party votes in those precincts. In the same area, Sareini received 1,599 votes vs. 2,517 to Darany. This  means that 1,018 voters in this area chose Sareini regardless of party affiliation.

Why did Arab Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic? It is simply because Republican policies and rhetoric in the last few years have been clearly anti-Arab and anti-Muslim. Our community still mistrusts Republicans. This obviously hurt Sareini.  Another factor is the lack of understanding of the voting system  which allows a voter to “split ticket” which basically means voting straight Democrat and still giving a vote to Suzanne Sareini. Many AAPAC poll workers stated that Arab American voters did not want to consider any Republican, even if it was Sareini, a well known Arab  American. They also reported that many voters preferred the easy way of voting straight Democratic.

As for the School Board race, incumbent Jim Schoolmaster won by a mere 21 votes over Roxanne McDonald. Schoolmaster was endorsed by AAPAC, which put him over the top in Arab precincts where he received 2,077 votes compared to 1,397 votes to McDonald in the same area. McDonald beat Schoolmaster in Dearborn Heights, where a small area votes for Dearborn School Board. Neither candidate had mounted a big campaign.  McDonald has clearly positioned herself as a serious candidate who may unseat an incumbent next year if she decides to run, and especially if she obtains AAPAC’s support next time. McDonald has many friends in the Arab community and within AAPAC. She wasn’t  endorsed this time because Schoolmaster’s record on the Board was one that benefited the entire city, which earned him AAPAC’s support. 

Schoolmaster’s performance in the Arab precincts, despite McDonald’s  popularity in the area, shows that the same Arab voters who may not  have followed AAPAC’s slate when it came to Republican Sareini, did follow the slate when it came to the nonpartisan race of Dearborn School Board. This fact was evidenced by other non partisan races, such as the Supreme Court race: AAPAC candidates Alton Davis (2,047  votes) and Denise Langford Morris (1,677 votes) beat Mary Beth Kelly  (1,483 votes) and Bob Young (1,439 votes) in the Arab precincts while Davis and Morris lost city and state wide.