BEIRUT — When Lebanon heads to the polls Jun. 7 to decide whether the Hizbullah-led opposition alliance will unseat the ruling Western-backed coalition, voter anonymity could be compromised by shortcomings in the 2008 parliamentary election law.

A Lebanese woman shows her ink-stained finger after casting her vote at a polling station in Beirut June 4, 2009. REUTERS

“The new law is a disaster,” Paul Sawaya, Beirut district coordinator with the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections told IPS. “Some of the reforms are good, but many others still need to be adopted.”
Reforms under the current law require voters to enter private booths, seal their ballots in official envelopes, slide them into transparent ballot boxes, and dip their thumbs in indelible ink. These reforms, while championed by local watchdog organizations, fail to address a source of corruption that has altered Lebanese elections for decades — the lack of official standardized ballots.

The proposal for an official ballot listing all eligible candidates in each electoral district was rejected along with other reforms designed to promote fair and democratic elections when the finalized electoral law was adopted in September 2008.

“All parties said they were with the pre-printed ballots, but when it came to parliament, no one voted for it,” Lynne Ghossein, program director at the Lebanese Transparency Association (LTA) told IPS. “The current system provides a means to buy votes, so of course political figures did not want this reform.”

According to Sawaya, ballot papers are typically produced by political parties in each district and list only the candidates they endorse for each seat. If voters opt to forego pre-printed party ballots, they may write the names of candidates they wish to elect on a blank piece of paper.

The current law explicitly states, however, that any ballot papers containing identification marks shall be considered spoilt. This inherent contradiction leaves the validity of write-in ballots at the discretion of polling officials.

The party ballots can be meticulously tailored through font size, layout and design before being distributed to families. “This system allows electoral machines to track who is voting for them,” Sawaya told IPS.

The law permits party agents to monitor polling stations, ballot counting, and ballot reviews, providing them ample opportunity to identify these embedded distinguishing ballot features during the election. Without an official ballot, parties can effectively intimidate voters and offer in-kind and cash incentives by monitoring their compliance at the polls.

Jean-Michel Abouhamad de Tarrazi, who is managing the campaign for his mother Gilberte Zwein, MP, told IPS, “The influence of money in this election is a disaster. My mother is in a really good position, but things will depend on how many people her opponents are able to bribe. If they can buy a few thousand people, it could definitely change the outcome.”

Many citizens fed up with the state of Lebanese politics plan to demonstrate their democratic rights by sealing a blank, unmarked piece of paper inside their official envelopes. Others will simply not vote.

Sawaya plans to submit a blank piece of paper in protest. “There are no candidates, parties or programs that are fulfilling my expectations,” he told IPS. “I want to show that I disagree with all of them.”

Sawaya told IPS that many disgruntled voters cast blank votes in past elections to voice their dissatisfaction with candidates. These votes will be considered valid for the first time this election under a provision in the new law stating that blank ballots shall be counted. These could measure the extent of dissatisfaction with the electoral process.

Gaelle Kibranian, another program director at LTA, believes that implementing the United Nations Convention against Corruption, which Lebanon ratified last year, could greatly reduce some of the problems facing Lebanese politics.

“This would have a great impact on upcoming elections. It would allow for the development of access to information laws, and whistleblowers, and would help citizens stand and provide testimony that they were bribed,” Kibranian told IPS.

LTA will include provision of official ballots in its advocacy and lobbying strategy post-elections to improve transparency, anonymity and stability in the electoral process.

“The politics in Lebanon over the last few years has been completely dominated by polarized sectarianism and security issues, leaving very little room for substantive debate,” Nadim Houry, senior researcher at Human Rights Watch in Lebanon told IPS.

Meanwhile, as election volunteers in Lebanon work to spruce up its hundreds of polling places for Sundays’ election, Minister of Education Bahia Hariri, sister of the murdered Rafiq, canceled school for Saturday and Monday as a precaution, and the U.S. Embassy issued an advisory for Americans to avoid public places and “reminds American citizens in Lebanon that even peaceful gatherings and demonstrations can turn violent unexpectedly.” As for the voters, they are preparing to elect 128 Parliamentary Delegates from more than 550 candidates who theoretically will chart this country’s course over the next four years.

Beirut’s airport is jammed with thousands of Lebanese, often given free tickets, arriving to vote from all over the world, but most heavily from the U.S., Canada, and Europe.

Drop-outs can succeed

More than two dozen candidates have dropped out of the race (and may now be millionaires if they were not already). This electoral phenomenon regularly happens just before the voting in Lebanon. One drop-out candidate confided to a Carter Center STO (short term observer) that he put two kids through college in France with what he earned by abandoning his candidacies.

It works as follows: A would-be parliamentary member announces a candidacy, sometimes with great fanfare and appropriate solemnity, perhaps giving speeches about the need for Lebanon to be a beacon of democracy which elects deputies based on merit and who are immune from corruption etc. They campaign furiously for several weeks gathering as much media and credibility as they can. Then they quietly approach their relevant Zaiim (chief or power broker) and begin their real project, which is to sell their withdrawal for as much cash as they can get in exchange. One could “earn” a cool million in cash or more depending on the electoral district and how much voter appeal the candidate can demonstrate. A final press conference is then called to announce gravely that for the greater good of the Republic of Lebanon, national unity, the Church or umma, the candidate is reluctantly ending his campaign, making a personal sacrifice, and, incidentally, is endorsing his “opponent.”

Rent voter’s ID initiative

Minister Fouad Siniora announced the existence of “information and reports whereby cases of ID forgery have been recorded.”

This relates to what this observer calls the “Rent Voter’s ID Initiative.” It is practiced mainly in the South and works as follows: Longtime Hizbullah Shi’a nemesis, Ahmad al-As’ad, has set up an anti-Hizbullah Shi’a organization called the Lebanese Option Gathering and has fielded 19 candidates against Hizbullah. He openly admits getting large amounts of Saudi cash to complete against Hizbullah in the South and the Bekaa and is thought to be allied with the pro-U.S. Hariri team. As’ad knows his group cannot win and that the overwhelming number of Shi’a will vote for Hizbullah. His goal is not so much to get voters to vote against Hizbullah, but to keep them from voting for Hizbullah. Then when the votes are counted, Israel and the anti-Hizbullah centers can declare that “Hizbullah is losing support among its base, because it got fewer votes than in 2005 etc.”

To make this happen, As’ad operatives have been “renting” Voter ID Cards for up to $1000 each. The cards are turned over in exchange for $1,000 and are to be returned on Monday, July 8, after the votes are counted. One Shi’a fellow from Bint Jbeil claims to have “rented” 20 family Voter ID cards to As’ad operatives and was paid $20,000 plus a new car for the family and new Nokia phones for the teenagers. After the election it can be determined how well this campaign tactic worked. But Sinioria’s announcement confirms what this and other observers predicted. That shrewd voters might just print up forged Voter IDs to increase income and still be able to use their originals to vote for Hizbullah. As’ad operatives seem at the moment to be holding quite a number of forged IDs. Fireworks are expected following the vote count.

Watching the Lebanese vote

More than a dozen foreign organizations are in Lebanon monitoring the voting including one from the European Union, and the Atlanta-based Carter Center, which launched its election observation mission to Lebanon in early February 2009. It now has 50 short term observers, after receiving formal accreditation from Lebanon’s Ministry of the Interior and Municipalities in March. It has also dispatched six long-term observers to monitor the electoral process in all 26 electoral districts. They plan to stay in Lebanon until the end of July to monitor the post-election environment, including the complaints process, while it assesses the electoral process in Lebanon against the relevant legal framework, including Lebanese election laws, the Constitution of Lebanon, and Lebanon’s international commitments. So far they have found some “irregularities” but have not yet issued a formal report.

The Spy hunt

In the Burj Abu Haider section of Beirut the concept of “Hasana Niyabya” or Parliamentary Immunity is being discussed. This is important because in addition to the 38 alleged spies arrested (made possible by Hizbullah intelligence and technology working with Lebanon’s Internal Security Force (ISF) it is rumored that no fewer than four current members of Parliament allied with the U.S. team are going to be arrested for spying for Israel following Sunday’s voting. The post election arrest of two Cabinet Ministers and “a higher political figure” are also hinted at. They are safe until they lose their Parliamentary Immunity when the votes are counted creating a new Parliament or unless the new Parliament passes a third Immunity Law very fast to shield wrongdoers (two earlier “let the past be the past and we can move forward” amnesties were enacted in 1992 and 2005). It was the fear of “Israeli spy outings” that dominated the Joe Biden agenda when he met with the U.S. team last month. The majority wanted U.S. help in postponing the election, and thereby retaining Parliamentary immunity, but Joe said no. This issue is just one reason that observers here are predicting fireworks after the votes are counted.

“Is he/she an Israeli spy?” is a question being asked a lot this week. If someone “high up” does not show up for work at a government ministry the whispers flow.

This piece is a combination of articles from Franklin Lamb, who is doing research in Beirut, and IPS writer Brian D. Pellett.