Internal affairs in Russia and the United States are changing the balance of power and the shape of a future solution in Syria.

In the United States, the presidential campaign is witnessing vicious attacks between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, with ISIS (and by extension the Syrian crisis) as one of the most important issues to American voters. Hence, President Obama will try to score a victory against the terrorist group before the end of his term to boost the Democratic nominee, his former secretary of state.

In Russia, President Vladimir Putin will present the Federation’s budget after he promised to cut last year’s 3.7 percent deficit, caused by the expenses of the war in Syria and dwindling oil prices. 

Both American and Russian leaders seem eager to achieve something in the short term in Syria.

On the American side, defeating ISIS would be the best response to Trump, who went as far as accusing Obama and Clinton of creating the terrorist group. For Russia, a major breakthrough in Syria would help calm economic anxiety about its growing military involvement in the region, assuring that the Russian bombing campaign will not go on forever.

Washington and Moscow have been in agreement about changing the status quo in Syria, although their agendas have been different.

Obama’s number one priority is crushing Daesh, but Russia wants to defeat all rebel groups and prop up the government in Damascus.

These differences are suspending the Russian-American agreement, the draft of which has been finalized since last week’s meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The pact still needs to be approved by the highest authorities in Washington and Moscow.

The gist of the new equation is Raqqa for Aleppo. 

The agreement, which took more than 10 hours of meetings between the two countries’ chief diplomats, entails a long-term ceasefire to rally forces against ISIS and forming a new political entity to lead the transitional period.

Russian news agency Interfax reported that the agreement includes giving rebels in Aleppo a deadline to surrender, while U.S. and Russian air strikes target extremist groups to drive them out of the city. 

Although the State Department has denied the report, any solution to the situation in Aleppo will have to lead to a government victory due to the presence of terrorist groups among opposition militants.

Elsewhere, the United States is pushing its allies to capture Raqqa, the de facto Syrian capital of ISIS. A triumph over Daesh in Syria would not only help Democrats; it also could redeem Obama’s Middle East legacy.

Turkey has its own agenda for intervening in Syria. Rebels backed by Turkish troops drove ISIS out of Syrian villages on the Turkish border. The terrorist group, which was initially tolerated by Ankara, was starting to pose a serious threat to Turkish national security.

Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, Turkey was able to push Kurdish militants off its border. Turkey views the main Kurdish factions in Syria as an extension of the Kurdish groups waging an insurgency against Ankara.

The United States supported the Turkish incursion, although it has armed and trained the Kurdish forces that Ankara is trying to contain.

In return, Obama wants Turkey to participate in, if not lead, the offensive to retake Raqqa.

“Obama wants to do some things jointly concerning Raqqa,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a group of journalists during his return flight Tuesday from the G20 summit meeting in China. “We said this would not be a problem from our perspective. Our soldiers should come together and discuss, then we will do what is necessary.”

Moscow did not object to the Turkish intervention. The safe zone that Erdogan is creating in Syria is seen as a move against ISIS and the Kurds, not President Assad.

Meanwhile, events on the battlefield are unfolding independently of the of the negotiations.

The Syrian army, with its Hezbollah, Iranian and Iraqi allies, were able to once again encircle Aleppo, undoing rebels’ gains over the past month.

The new realities on the ground may send a message to help push the U.S.-Russian agreement, which is still stagnating over the details. For now, all the developments are pointing toward one equation: Raqqa for Aleppo.